2016 NYC Real Estate Market Forecasting

The NYC real estate market continued the “recovering” trend from October, after slowing down in August and September.  The median sales price in Manhattan clocked in at $1.36mm, close to the YoY record of $1.4mm set in July 2015.  Adding more comfort is the quickened pace: Median Days on Market shortened to 58 days for Manhattan and 51 days for Brooklyn from roughly 70 days for both boroughs – back to the dizzying pace the market had gotten used to in the past 3 years.  Inventory decreased 5.6% in November and probably more in December, bringing the overall Absorption rate close to 6 months and restoring the tight supply picture that some observers thought was beginning to change.

This is such a special time as the clock ticks towards the last few minutes of 2015 and from the trenches, here are my humble two cents for what may come in 2016:

  1. The $5mm+ segment slows down further. $1-3mm range sees more supply as developers focus their attention away from the ultra-luxury market to this price point.  Prices hold for this segment
  2. The Bronx gets hotter. The Real Deal reports some 8000 new dev units are estimated to come onto the market for the new hot kid on the block
  3. Prices stay flat overall. The conforming fixed rate is just north of 4% and the jumbo fixed rate stays in the 3.7% range since the market has priced in the 25bps rate increase for the past month.  Inventory is still tight, mortgage rates should increase slowly and the job market should be better in 2016
  4. And finally the Chinese! The RMB continues to see its value decrease against the dollar.  The exchange rate went from 6.2 to 6.6 this year.  However, personally I have only seen the number of Chinese clients climb

Happy 2016!


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